Sherwood Boehlert, Chairman of the House Science Committee, is acting like the President's space initiative is in the form of a
live hand grenade that he can't quite get rid of. He mused on the initiative for quite a while before the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
It's not, oddly, that he thinks the President's initiative is a bad idea:
"I mean that the U.S. should have an ongoing human space flight program. I mean that the long-term goal of our human space flight program ought to be going to Mars and beyond. I mean that our intermediate goal ought to be returning to the moon. I mean that to finance such a venture - among other reasons - we need to stop flying the Space Shuttle by a date certain - the sooner, the better. "
Unfortunately Boehlert has a problem with actually paying for the initiative.
"As part of the exploration initiative, the President has proposed increasing the NASA budget by 5.6 percent in the next fiscal year, to about $16.2 billion. I just can't imagine that that's going to happen, and I don't think it should.
"Total federal non-security, domestic discretionary spending in fiscal 2005 is likely to increase by less than half a percent. Congress may even freeze spending, as the House voted to do in its Budget Resolution. In such a budget, should NASA receive almost a 6 percent increase? Is it the highest domestic spending priority? I don't think so, and I doubt my colleagues will either."
And why is this? Boehlert goes on to explain.
"NASA is an appropriations bill in which it competes for funds against veterans programs, against housing programs, against environmental programs and against basic science and education programs - almost all of which are high priorities in my book.
"As Science Committee chairman, I'm especially concerned that we do right by the National Science Foundation, which Congress has said, in statute, ought to be increasing by 15 percent a year. I would note that a healthy NSF is the key to carrying out the education agenda you call for in your policy document.
"Moreover, Congress isn't likely to even take up the NASA spending bill until after Election Day. (I'm not proud of that, but its reality.) That means that for at least a month, and potentially for several months, NASA will be funded by a continuing resolution. That, in turn, means that for some portion of next year, NASA will be flat-funded and will not be allowed to start new initiatives. That alone could delay aspects of the exploration initiative.
"And my funding concerns are not limited to those raised by the funding competition between NASA and other agencies. The President's proposal also raises tough questions about the funding balance within NASA, as your document notes. The budget proposes to fund the exploration initiative, in part, by cutting Earth Science programs, eliminating some Space Science projects, and flat funding aeronautics, a major concern of yours, I know.
"We may indeed have to rethink some other programs to fund the exploration initiative, but I'm concerned that the proposed cuts may go too far.
The Earth Science cuts, for example, may hinder climate change research, itself an Administration research priority.
"Do I think that it's more important to know more about the Earth than it is to know more about Mars? I do, and I don't think it's a close question. And knowing more about the Earth will take plenty of aerospace know-how. "
The solution Boehlert suggests is part of an old Washington game. Slow down the pace of the program, even though he admits that there are perils inherent in that.
"Now my point in going through all this is not to suggest that we shouldn't move ahead with the President's exploration initiative. I hope that's clear from my earlier comments. My point is that the pace at which we move ahead probably will have to be slower than what the President proposed because funds are likely to be more limited than he assumed.
"How much slower? Slow enough to delay a return to the moon beyond 2020? It's too soon to know that. My staff is continuing to pore through the proposed budget to see how we might put together a NASA budget for fiscal 2005 that would be affordable, that would not cut valuable programs excessively, and that would allow work to get started on programs critical to the exploration initiative.
"And we will go through this process with a keen awareness that stretching out programs too much can make them more expensive and less effective in the end."
Of course Boehlert doesn't say that there's a precedence made in stretching out a program to make the yearly books look good. If one does it one year, then what's there to prevent it from happening in other years? There is always a crisis, another priority, or some excuse not to fund the program adequetly. And so we could have a lets pretend we have a space program that generates a lot of studies, but no hardware and no missions.
At this rate, Americans will return to the Moon about the year Captain James T. Kirk is born. But by then it will be too late. The Chinese will have beaten us to it.
Boehlert should rethink his reasoning and decide whether he really wants a manned space program or not. If he doesn't want such a program, he should advocate zeroing out the President's initiative, just as his father's was fifteen years ago. If does want it, then he should not only find ways to adequetly fund it , but work to advance the milestones. I don't know about you, but 2020 is an aweful long time away to wait for people to return to the Moon. 2010 or 2012 sounds a whole lot better to me. Certainly better than stretching out the program into eternity.