Rand Simberg is somewhat
skeptical that a return to the Moon would generate any public excitement. I have to beg to disagree.
What's so exciting about NASA sending a few government employees back to the Moon? NASA's been there, did that, got the hat, a third of a century ago. The public found it boring then. Why, in the twenty-first century, amidst the explosion of technological wonders that we've seen since, would they get jazzed about it now? What would make it so newsworthy as to knock the death of a great Pope off the headlines? Why is NASA astronauts walking around on the Moon any more fascinating to a modern, jaded public than NASA astronauts circling the earth in a can, something that is never in the news unless something goes wrong?
Rand ignores several facts. First, the public
was excited when men walked on the moon--the first time. The public became bored with each lunar expedition that followed. I think there were a couple of reasons for this. One, (and Rand has a point here) it did not appear that lunar exploration would ever progress beyond "a few government employees." Two, public support for human space exploration was quite low, according to polling data of the time. The reasons for this stem from the politics of the early 70s, the popularity of the idea that "all that money" being spent on space could be spent better on social programs.
The way the Vision for Space Exploration is shaping up will make it a bit different than Apollo. It will not, ultimately, consists of just "a few government employees." Attention to the commercial possibilities of a return to the Moon will open up that world to all people, in my humble opinion. The idea that what will (if all goes as planned) happen in a decade (or less if Michael Griffin has his way) may lead to will, in my judgment, heighten public excitement.
Second, the political zeitgeist of the 21st Century is different than that of thirty five years ago. Current polling data indicates a much higher public support for lunar exploration than was the case thirty five years ago. Only a few far left liberals think that social programs need a large expansion.
Also, the youngest person who ever saw humans walk on the Moon at--say--the age of five is now in his or her forties. Most people alive have never seen a person exploring another world.
I can tell you that, as a die-hard space enthusiast, I sure can't get excited about it. In fact, I don't think that the current VSE, at least as put forth by some of the major contractors (and like the Shuttle and ISS), is worth the money. And I (unlike most of the public) actually know what a tiny percentage of the federal budget it constitutes. If Mark can't sell me on it, why does he think that those who don't have that much interest in space (the vast majority, at least when it comes to relative depth of interest), and think that NASA consumes half the federal budget, will be excited?
I can't speak to Rand's lack of enthusiasm and won't try. I do think he sells people short, projecting his feelings and assuming that most people share them. I think (again) the polling data backs me up. Most people do not have his skepticism of government run and financed space programs. Perhaps they should, but they don't.
I will tell you what might have knocked those other things off the headlines, at least temporarily (at least based on the response to the SpaceShipOne flights)--if Paul Allen walked on the Moon, with his own money, and was selling tickets so that others could do so.
That would be something, wouldn't it. But I don't think people will very much care whether the next person to walk on the Moon is paid by NASA or Microsoft. The excitement will be much the same. What will sustain it, though, is the consciousness that the first return to the Moon will lead to much more than a few flags and rocks. I've written about that previously,
here,
here, and
here.
Of course, even with that, there will be a few naysayers, as I suggest
here and
here.
Addendum: In a response, Rand says this:
I'm not aware of any polling data that backs him up. He'll have to show some, rather than simply asserting it, if he wants to convince me or (I would hope) my readers.
For those like Rand, who do not remember, I refer to the
Gallup and
Dittmar studies.